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Enjoy!

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In the next 20 years, we're about to see what may turn out

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to be the biggest changes

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to the way, we live in human history.

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I'm James Burke, and I'm gonna take you

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on a journey through time, joining up the dots

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in about 10 connections, charting the people,

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objects, and ideas that change history

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in the most surprising ways.

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To tell you the incredible story of how we got here.

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Where we're going next?

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This series is about the process of change

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and why the future is being shaped by everything we do

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and is not going to be what we expect.

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Because that's the way change happens.

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Cause and effect.

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You innovate to solve a problem and even if you succeed,

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there's always an unexpected outcome that triggers the need

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for another innovation, and so on.

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That's why nobody in the past knew what was coming next,

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The sequence of connections leads

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like a falling set of dominoes to an innovation

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that's set to transform humankind.

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So, where do we want to go from here?

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What's the next connection?

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Watch Online Movies and Series for FREE
www.osdb.link/lm

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So, this is the future we're heading for.

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Artificial-intelligence-powered avatars

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so realistic, they'll be indistinguishable from us.

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No more search engines, pages of links, or online forms.

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Human-looking AI will be the new gatekeeper

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to all the knowledge of the world.

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It'll look like us, sound like us, and act like us,

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using deep learning to adapt and evolve with us.

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What will that mean for humanity?

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Give it some thought while we follow the trail

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of connections that leads to a future where AI becomes,

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well, human and it starts over 200 years ago

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with something really boring, this.

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If you are a shipbuilder back in the days

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of wooden ships, this could be a bit of your vessel

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and this is what your ships are could look like

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after your ship has bumped into a shipworm and been bored.

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We carry the little worms in our wooden ships

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all over the planet.

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They reproduce four times a year and each time,

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depending on what type has infested the ship,

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there could be up to 5 million baby worms

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and all they do is eat wood and die.

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But wait until you see how the shipworm changes history

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when this bright young man takes a look at one.

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See, in 1802, a Frenchman called Marc Brunel,

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who's been the New York Chief Engineer for a few years,

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fetches up in Portsmouth with a new ship-building idea

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for saving the Navy a fortune in labor costs.

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See loading and unloading ships back then uses

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what's called block-and-tackle to lift

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and move heavy weights like guns or supplies

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that tackles the rope

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and each wooden blocks a different size,

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depending on the job, there could be hundreds on each ship.

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The Royal Navy alone gets through a hundred thousand a year,

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using a multitude of trained carpenters,

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each chipping them down to size, it's laborious,

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and then the blocks get damaged need replacing,

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so it's also expensive.

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So, Brunel automates the block-making process

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and saves a ton of money using a theory called

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the Division of Labor.

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10 unskilled men on a series of machines,

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each machine doing one bit of the production

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in a system called a block mill,

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all doing the work that used

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to take over a hundred craftsmen.

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It's probably the industrial world's first assembly line.

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News of Brunel's block mill reaches far and wide

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on the Maritime Grapevine.

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Even Admiral Nelson turns up to take a look on his way

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to the Battle of Trafalgar.

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So, by now Brunel has made a name for himself.

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So, the London authorities threw him a challenge.

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The River Thames.

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See this stretch of water?

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In 1823, the only way across was by Ferry.

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So, the idea is to dig a tunnel under the Thames,

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the might of Victorian industry taming the world.

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So, what does Brunel think of as a solution?

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Here's where tiny connections link to colossal achievements

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because if you want to dig a tunnel that won't collapse

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on your head, you copy the shipworm.

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See around the worm's head there's a couple of curved bits

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of shell acting like cutters and delivering bits of wood

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to the mouth and at the same time,

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protecting the worm's head, Brunel upscales

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the principle designing a brand-new excavator system.

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36 wooden cells, each were the workman inside,

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each acting like the shipworm digging away

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The whole setup pushed forward on rails

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just inches at a time as a digging advances.

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Here's what the job looks like when they finished.

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In London, under the Thames between whopping

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and rather high, a pedestrian tunnel

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more than 1,500 feet long, in its first four months,

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more than a million people walk through just

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to say they've done it.

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In 1865, the tunnel becomes part

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of the London subway system, an inspiration

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for tunnel builders all over the world

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and it's still going strong today,

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thanks to the little shipworm and Brunel.

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But it's an event that happens during construction

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that triggers the next in our series

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of surprising connections that will eventually lead us

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to AI-powered avatar.

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See, Brunel is so confident about his invention,

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he let his son Isambard sit up front

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during tunneling.

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A budding engineer himself,

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the boy takes on most of the tunneling job,

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learning the ropes from his father.

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The crew begin to report bits of China falling

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from the roof of the tunnel.

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It means only one thing.

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The riverbed, littered with thousands of years

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of human debris is very close.

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Then in 1828, disaster strikes.

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The river breaks through

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and the flooding does so much damage, it shuts down the dig

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It also happens

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to half-drown Brunel Junior and put him in hospital.

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Seriously injured, Isambard gets a lot of convalescent time

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to think about doing other jobs besides digging tunnels.

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So, with nothing else to do, he designed something

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up to now thought impossible.

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The amazing Clifton Suspension Bridge in Bristol, England,

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an architectural marvel, Isambard called it "My First Love".

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And you can see why.

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Spanning a 250-foot high gorge,

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the Bridge is anchored to the bedrock,

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using colossal iron chains stretching 65 feet underground.

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Brunel spends three years sourcing iron of iron

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of quality to take the weight.

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Nobody's ever seen anything like it.

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150,000 people packed the streets for to grand opening

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in 1864, and it's still going strong today.

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All thanks to Isambard's revolutionary use of iron.

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Next, thinks Isambard, "What else can iron do?

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How about 1000 miles of strong,

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super-efficient railway track to connect-up towns

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and cities across the country?"

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So, he builds the Great Western Railway,

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which makes it possible to run a new generation of faster,

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smoother locomotives traveling along at almost double

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the speed of their competitors.

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Isambard and others like him, race to lay track

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and a price war follows; train travel is now democratized

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because now anybody can afford a ticket.

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Ideas spread, so do goods, nook, cheese,

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meats coming from field to table, all on iron tracks.

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But he's not done yet.

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All the while, Isambard is thinking beyond borders

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because he's also been thinking

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about revolutionizing shipping using iron

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to make steamships bigger, faster, and stronger.

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So, that's the end of the shipworm problem for a start.

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Three giant steamships later, he's changed

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the business of oceanic trade everywhere

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and pioneered ocean-going iron holes.

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Isambard's three ships are powered by coal,

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feeding huge steam engines

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that turn either massive screw propellers or huge paddles.

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And if there's enough wind, as is often the case

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in the Atlantic, they can switch the engines off,

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hoist huge sails and travel well for free.

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In 1838, his first ship, the Great Western,

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arrives in New York with fuel to spare.

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Isambard is connecting the world.

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Okay, time for a "Where are we?"

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How is all this leading us to the future

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where AI-powered avatars will be so realistic,

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they'll be indistinguishable from us.

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The dreaded shipworm which inspires Brunel Senior's

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tunnel-boring machine, a tunnel collapse,

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almost kills his son Isambard and puts him

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in hospital where he designs a huge bridge,

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then builds a railway network and three steamships,

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connecting up the world with iron.

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And all the while Victorian engineers are experimenting

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with new ways to mass-produce iron.

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Refining the age-old process of casting iron.

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An iron and charcoal mix is poured into a cast

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like a jelly mold, taking any shape you like,

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but not every town has a metal foundry,

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so the molten metal is poured

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into a brick-shaped mold called a pig, and cooled.

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These portable bricks,

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pig iron can now go from factory to factory

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to get melted back down into any shape you want.

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The technology spreads so they're using it for everything.

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Cast iron fireplaces, cast iron staircases, cast iron gates,

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door handles, shoe scrapers, bathtubs, pipes, radiators,

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products that can now be mass-produced

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and owned by anybody with a bit of cash.

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Iron, it seems, has no limit to its use.

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Enter Isambard's competitor and good old Robert Stephenson,

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another railway pioneer who incidentally,

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invents a new kind of steam, train the rocket.

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Like Brunel, he's also a bridge builder

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and bridges other things

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that make sure the new train network can reach every part

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of the country.

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Stephenson designs a bridge over a river in England,

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using new cast iron girders and it's one of the longest

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of its kind in the world.

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Sound good, but it turns out that unlike normal iron,

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cast iron has a high carbon content and weakens

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if it has to bend too much,

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and what will bend cast iron,

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well, heavy locomotives would do the trick,

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especially, when they cross the bridge back

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and forth several times a week.

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So, guess what happens?

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On the 24th of May 1847,

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while a train is on its way across the bridge, as it start

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to cross the third spam, one of the girders suddenly fails

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and most of the train falls 30 feet down into the river.

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Five deaths, nine serious injuries,

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and lured newspaper headline.

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Stephenson looks to be in big trouble.

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In 1849, a Royal Commission is set up to investigate.

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In their report, although they exonerate Stephenson,

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they condemn the design of the bridge and ban the use

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of cast iron trusses in railway bridges.

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The Royal Commission is made up of analytical thinkers,

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including an advisor, the new Professor of Math

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at Cambridge, George Stokes, who knows everybody

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who's anybody, and who is a mover and shaker

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in anything to do with science.

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Now, this is where huge connection to purely

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on who you know because Stokes, his secretary,

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to the scientific royal society,

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and in 1859, he welcomes a new member, a toxicologist

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who's also a pal called William Bird Herapath.

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I bother you with him because this is truly one

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of those totally unexpected innovations

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that you do never believe.

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Because the key

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to Herapath's amazing world-changing discovery is dog pee.

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And a new substance, known as Herapathite,

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which whether you know it or not, you care about

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on any particularly bright day.

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Let's start with the dog urine.

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In 1852, one of Herapath's students notices as you would,

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that if you add iodine to dog urine,

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if the dog has already been fed quinine, okay, okay,

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but this is what geeks do.

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Then you get needle-like crystals.

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This is the Herapathite I mentioned,

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00:15:24,300 --> 00:15:26,430
which, of course, then gets examined by Herapath

260
00:15:26,430 --> 00:15:28,140
under his microscope,

261
00:15:28,140 --> 00:15:30,780
whereupon the crystals reveal themselves

262
00:15:30,780 --> 00:15:33,543
to be capable of polarizing light.

263
00:15:34,980 --> 00:15:38,310
First of all, here's what polarized means.

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00:15:38,310 --> 00:15:41,820
Okay, light radiates in all directions, right?

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00:15:41,820 --> 00:15:45,390
Vertical, horizontal, and everywhere in between.

266
00:15:45,390 --> 00:15:48,150
The light you are looking at here now, for example,

267
00:15:48,150 --> 00:15:51,060
also includes the light waves produced by reflections off

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00:15:51,060 --> 00:15:53,520
the water surface that called glare.

269
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:57,690
In this every which way state it's called unpolarized.

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00:15:57,690 --> 00:15:59,100
If you could polarize the light,

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00:15:59,100 --> 00:16:02,550
you could in principle, block all the light waves except

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00:16:02,550 --> 00:16:04,350
maybe the vertical one,

273
00:16:04,350 --> 00:16:06,540
and that way you cut out this glare

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00:16:06,540 --> 00:16:08,090
from all the other light waves.

275
00:16:09,330 --> 00:16:11,103
Okay, back to Herapath and his crystals.

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00:16:13,260 --> 00:16:17,010
If you lie one Herapath crystal on top of another,

277
00:16:17,010 --> 00:16:20,190
when you turn one of them, the crystals let through less

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00:16:20,190 --> 00:16:23,430
and less light until at right angles to each other,

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00:16:23,430 --> 00:16:25,503
they let through no light at all.

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00:16:26,340 --> 00:16:29,070
Herapath works out a way to make large sheets

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00:16:29,070 --> 00:16:31,800
of the material and then write it up as he does

282
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,710
all his stuff so badly,

283
00:16:34,710 --> 00:16:37,443
it's never published, and it's soon forgotten.

284
00:16:39,150 --> 00:16:41,430
But Herapathite is another one of those wonderful moments

285
00:16:41,430 --> 00:16:44,970
in the history of science, when a major innovation languages

286
00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:48,300
in obscurity until one day it bursts

287
00:16:48,300 --> 00:16:51,450
upon an astonished world and changes the future,

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00:16:51,450 --> 00:16:53,010
which is what happens.

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00:16:53,010 --> 00:16:56,130
It involves a Scottish scientist called David Brewster,

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00:16:56,130 --> 00:16:58,713
best known for his invention of the kaleidoscope.

291
00:17:00,390 --> 00:17:02,460
In 1858, Brewster writes a book

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00:17:02,460 --> 00:17:05,340
in which he mentions Herapath's forgotten dog urine,

293
00:17:05,340 --> 00:17:07,560
an experiment from six years earlier,

294
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,810
which he is once again forgotten about for 70 years

295
00:17:09,810 --> 00:17:11,703
because nobody reads Brewster's book.

296
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,600
And then, in 1926,

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00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,830
a young and talented physics student called Edwin Land comes

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00:17:19,830 --> 00:17:22,080
across Herapath in his own reading

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00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:23,673
at the New York Public Library.

300
00:17:25,470 --> 00:17:28,380
He makes samples of the Herapathite concoction,

301
00:17:28,380 --> 00:17:31,443
sees what it can do, and horridly files a pattern.

302
00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:34,980
He's so excited he goes back to Harvard,

303
00:17:34,980 --> 00:17:37,500
hoping the labs there will help him discover more

304
00:17:37,500 --> 00:17:40,290
about what Herapath's needle crystals can do.

305
00:17:40,290 --> 00:17:41,619
He duly gets a lab to play in.

306
00:17:47,220 --> 00:17:51,690
Land's first aim is to create glare-proof car headlights.

307
00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:54,000
Alas, no interest in car makers.

308
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,843
So, he thinks why not try making sunglasses?

309
00:17:59,220 --> 00:18:03,390
So, he does, and sells them as Polaroid sunglasses,

310
00:18:03,390 --> 00:18:05,610
wear them and all you're getting is one set

311
00:18:05,610 --> 00:18:07,560
of light waves, no glare.

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00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:08,393
Great.

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00:18:09,750 --> 00:18:12,450
Land's innovation is just in time.

314
00:18:12,450 --> 00:18:16,803
World War II arrives, and the military go for polarization

315
00:18:16,803 --> 00:18:20,130
in a big way.

316
00:18:20,130 --> 00:18:23,253
A pilot who sees the enemy first is a first to shoot.

317
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,900
Just take a look at what you see through military eyes act,

318
00:18:30,900 --> 00:18:33,900
for instance, the way glare makes a target difficult

319
00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:36,210
to see, and how much clearer things are

320
00:18:36,210 --> 00:18:38,133
through a polarized view of the enemy.

321
00:18:40,170 --> 00:18:42,990
It's an edge that can eventually play its part

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00:18:42,990 --> 00:18:47,743
in winning a war.

323
00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:51,450
So, how is all this leading us to a future

324
00:18:51,450 --> 00:18:54,510
with AI-powered avatars so realistic,

325
00:18:54,510 --> 00:18:56,433
they'll be indistinguishable from us.

326
00:18:57,450 --> 00:18:59,010
The dreaded shipworm,

327
00:18:59,010 --> 00:19:01,650
Brunel Senior's tunnel boring machine,

328
00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:04,800
his son Isambard launches Britain's railways,

329
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:06,930
revolutionizing the use of iron,

330
00:19:06,930 --> 00:19:09,390
a technology embraced by Stephenson

331
00:19:09,390 --> 00:19:13,260
whose cast iron bridge disaster is examined by Stokes,

332
00:19:13,260 --> 00:19:15,930
who mixes with movers and shakers like William Herapath,

333
00:19:15,930 --> 00:19:19,980
the dog urine man, who discovers polarization used

334
00:19:19,980 --> 00:19:24,000
by Edwin Land to invent sunglasses which give fighter pilots

335
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,400
an advantage during the war.

336
00:19:26,550 --> 00:19:28,500
But Land isn't finished yet.

337
00:19:28,500 --> 00:19:30,810
He's on the verge of another world-changing innovation

338
00:19:30,810 --> 00:19:33,093
and it comes about by chance.

339
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:45,870
See, in 1943, Land is on vacation in Santa Fe

340
00:19:45,870 --> 00:19:47,973
and taking snaps for the family album.

341
00:19:48,990 --> 00:19:49,980
His little daughter asks

342
00:19:49,980 --> 00:19:53,430
why she can't see a photo immediately after it's been taken.

343
00:19:53,430 --> 00:19:56,160
And before they finish the day, a clever dad has worked out

344
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,600
how to do that.

345
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:58,967
Here's what he comes up with...

346
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,668
A Polaroid-instant camera.

347
00:20:08,666 --> 00:20:11,640
In a nutshell, the image of photographing comes in through

348
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,160
the lens, and is reflected by a mirror down

349
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,220
onto a negative, and it's rolled between the processing

350
00:20:17,220 --> 00:20:18,660
and developing chemicals.

351
00:20:18,660 --> 00:20:21,330
And after a minute, it's a photograph.

352
00:20:21,330 --> 00:20:22,922
The photo is called a Polaroid,

353
00:20:22,922 --> 00:20:25,472
and it takes the world by storm.

354
00:20:27,810 --> 00:20:30,270
When the Polaroid camera hits the shops after the war,

355
00:20:30,270 --> 00:20:34,080
it sells in the millions and between it and the sunglasses,

356
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,303
makes Land a very rich man.

357
00:20:37,830 --> 00:20:40,110
By this point, Land is a guy to go to

358
00:20:40,110 --> 00:20:42,150
when you're in difficulties and you need an innovation

359
00:20:42,150 --> 00:20:43,566
to help you out.

360
00:20:43,566 --> 00:20:45,270
War!

361
00:20:45,270 --> 00:20:46,950
And by the mid-1950s,

362
00:20:46,950 --> 00:20:48,360
it's the height of the Cold War,

363
00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:50,793
which means everybody's in difficulties.

364
00:20:52,808 --> 00:20:55,440
The stunning mule shall have the atom bomb

365
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,530
and has exported it first on America.

366
00:20:58,530 --> 00:21:02,970
So, we have two superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union,

367
00:21:02,970 --> 00:21:05,850
and a standoff, each has nuclear missiles

368
00:21:05,850 --> 00:21:07,440
that could end the world.

369
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,963
Each side needs to know what the other is up to.

370
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,800
To find that out, you need to fly over the enemy territory

371
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,730
and take a look, but there's no point if the plane can't see

372
00:21:17,730 --> 00:21:19,785
all the way down to the ground.

373
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,470
Land is summoned to the White House where he explains

374
00:21:25,470 --> 00:21:27,240
to President Eisenhower

375
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,960
that a camera he has designed can be strapped to a spy plane

376
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,560
and would be so accurate it would be able to see a golf ball

377
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:35,603
at over a mile.

378
00:21:38,070 --> 00:21:40,770
Now, Eisenhower is a keen golfer himself.

379
00:21:40,770 --> 00:21:43,470
He instantly green-lights the camera development,

380
00:21:43,470 --> 00:21:45,450
which now gives purpose to the plane

381
00:21:45,450 --> 00:21:46,653
the camera will go on.

382
00:21:49,380 --> 00:21:52,440
The plane's objective really pushes the envelope.

383
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:53,940
Getting to Russia and back,

384
00:21:53,940 --> 00:21:58,080
requires an operational flight distance of 7,000 miles.

385
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,530
It also has to fly over 13 miles up to be out of range

386
00:22:01,530 --> 00:22:04,890
of Soviet fighters and surface-to-air missile house.

387
00:22:04,890 --> 00:22:08,490
And from up there, the mission will be to take pictures

388
00:22:08,490 --> 00:22:12,720
of any object on the ground as small as two feet across

389
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,713
and produce as many as 4,000 pairs of stereoscopic photos.

390
00:22:20,250 --> 00:22:23,490
The plane taking these amazing pictures becomes known as

391
00:22:23,490 --> 00:22:26,540
the U-2 and is operated by the CIA.

392
00:22:33,510 --> 00:22:35,910
Now, to see anything from 13 miles away,

393
00:22:35,910 --> 00:22:39,093
the U-2 cameras need to be at maximum zoom.

394
00:22:40,830 --> 00:22:44,910
Complicating that at 70,000 feet just to keep flying,

395
00:22:44,910 --> 00:22:47,520
the pilot has a 13-mile-an-hour speed envelope

396
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,933
to keep insight of, faster or slower and he'll store.

397
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,100
So, there's little, if any, flexibility to comply with

398
00:22:56,100 --> 00:22:59,883
what the camera needs.

399
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,300
In 1957, the Americans detect

400
00:23:03,300 --> 00:23:05,130
the kind of radio signals you get

401
00:23:05,130 --> 00:23:07,350
when you're doing missile tests.

402
00:23:07,350 --> 00:23:11,487
Coming from near a place called Tyuratam in Kazakhstan,

403
00:23:11,487 --> 00:23:13,383
and a U-2 is sent to take a look.

404
00:23:16,260 --> 00:23:20,010
Since any missile launchpad will have to be accessible

405
00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:23,730
by missile-delivering railroad, the U-2 pilot is told

406
00:23:23,730 --> 00:23:25,590
to follow the main railroad through

407
00:23:25,590 --> 00:23:28,290
the neighboring Uzbekistan Capital, Tashkent,

408
00:23:28,290 --> 00:23:31,917
until they reach Kazakhstan and the suspect signals area.

409
00:23:34,290 --> 00:23:38,040
And sure enough, on August the 5th, 1957,

410
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:43,020
the U-2-photographed evidence of a big new launch complex.

411
00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:47,370
This, on the pad down there and too big to be hidden

412
00:23:47,370 --> 00:23:50,670
from follow on U-2 visits is a huge rocket known

413
00:23:50,670 --> 00:23:55,200
as the R-7 assembled horizontally and then rolled out

414
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:59,040
to be raised to the vertical position and fueled variance

415
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,680
of this game-changing rocket will be in operation

416
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,693
for the next 50 years and more.

417
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,520
The R-7 has a core stage, surrounded

418
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,530
by four strap-on boosters.

419
00:24:10,530 --> 00:24:13,263
Think of them as huge thermos flasks.

420
00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:17,283
And this is how it worked.

421
00:24:18,810 --> 00:24:21,630
The designers understood that certain gases ignite

422
00:24:21,630 --> 00:24:23,880
and that the thermos flask permits you

423
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,150
to store vast quantities of those gases safely

424
00:24:27,150 --> 00:24:30,450
in the frozen liquid form until you want to ignite them.

425
00:24:30,450 --> 00:24:33,600
At which point, you take the top off the flask,

426
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,410
the gases evaporate, you apply a light, and boom.

427
00:24:37,410 --> 00:24:40,350
Now, two gases do that better than any other.

428
00:24:40,350 --> 00:24:43,470
The two gases that are released from this particular version

429
00:24:43,470 --> 00:24:47,220
of a thermos flask, the one lying on its side behind me now,

430
00:24:47,220 --> 00:24:51,663
were kerosene and oxygen.

431
00:24:53,370 --> 00:24:56,940
If you release those two gases into a confined space

432
00:24:56,940 --> 00:24:59,340
with a hole at the other end of it, and mix 'em

433
00:24:59,340 --> 00:25:04,320
as you do so, and then set light to them, you get...

434
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:05,589
That.

435
00:25:09,750 --> 00:25:11,670
Once all four boosters light up,

436
00:25:11,670 --> 00:25:13,383
the core ignites the liftoff.

437
00:25:14,370 --> 00:25:18,543
The rocket can carry a six-ton warhead 5,000 miles.

438
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,830
So, the Soviets have an intercontinental ballistic list,

439
00:25:22,830 --> 00:25:26,100
that are capable of delivering a nuclear strike anywhere

440
00:25:26,100 --> 00:25:27,285
in the world.

441
00:25:33,990 --> 00:25:36,270
But before the Americans can get too worked up

442
00:25:36,270 --> 00:25:37,860
by this new threat,

443
00:25:37,860 --> 00:25:41,460
two months later on October the 4th, 1957,

444
00:25:41,460 --> 00:25:44,460
the R-7 changes the future in a big way,

445
00:25:44,460 --> 00:25:48,360
and gives the American Military the fright of their lives

446
00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:50,250
with the launch into orbit

447
00:25:50,250 --> 00:25:52,053
of the world's first satellite,

448
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,323
known as Sputnik,

449
00:25:56,310 --> 00:25:59,670
a basketball-size metal satellite that does nothing

450
00:25:59,670 --> 00:26:02,040
but orbit the earth and beep for 22 days

451
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,200
until its battery runs out.

452
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,520
And while the arguments are raging

453
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,160
about what to do about this, in November,

454
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,130
the Russians launch another Sputnik

455
00:26:10,130 --> 00:26:14,400
imaginably named Sputnik 2, complete with a passenger,

456
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:19,110
a dog called Laika, the first living creature in orbit.

457
00:26:19,110 --> 00:26:21,780
Sadly, a one-way ticket.

458
00:26:21,780 --> 00:26:24,318
Well, you know what comes next, the space race.

459
00:26:32,070 --> 00:26:34,440
The Americans try and catch up with the test

460
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,303
of their launch vehicle Vanguard.

461
00:26:37,170 --> 00:26:39,423
On December the 6th, this happened.

462
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,050
Watched by a mass TV audience,

463
00:26:49,050 --> 00:26:51,600
the American public does not like what it's seeing.

464
00:26:52,770 --> 00:26:54,690
America it seems, is no longer

465
00:26:54,690 --> 00:26:58,000
the impregnable technological superpower it thought it was.

466
00:27:01,860 --> 00:27:04,170
Less than two months later, in 1958,

467
00:27:04,170 --> 00:27:07,020
the US Government reacts to the Sputnik shock

468
00:27:07,020 --> 00:27:08,940
by setting up what becomes known as

469
00:27:08,940 --> 00:27:13,020
the Advanced Research Projects Agency, ARPA,

470
00:27:13,020 --> 00:27:16,320
to encourage thousands of scientists and technologists

471
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,240
to think about the kind of innovation

472
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,640
that will help keep American defense ahead

473
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,722
of any conceivable threat.

474
00:27:26,010 --> 00:27:28,860
Harper's primary aim is to use high-tech to ramp up

475
00:27:28,860 --> 00:27:32,427
what soldiers can do and provide new ways of protecting them

476
00:27:32,427 --> 00:27:34,140
above all, maybe even replace

477
00:27:34,140 --> 00:27:35,913
the human soldier with technology.

478
00:27:37,530 --> 00:27:40,110
Some of the hundreds of things the agency gets up to,

479
00:27:40,110 --> 00:27:43,195
include a thought-controlled prosthetic arm.

480
00:27:45,210 --> 00:27:50,163
Massive data processor, detection of false information,

481
00:27:51,270 --> 00:27:53,133
unmanned anti-submarine vessel,

482
00:27:53,970 --> 00:27:57,330
brain-computer interface systems, heads-up displays

483
00:27:57,330 --> 00:28:01,410
for individual soldiers, networking computers,

484
00:28:01,410 --> 00:28:05,340
computer mice, remotely-controlled aircraft,

485
00:28:05,340 --> 00:28:06,813
later called drones.

486
00:28:08,130 --> 00:28:10,500
All things we take for granted today,

487
00:28:10,500 --> 00:28:12,650
but which were decades ahead of their time.

488
00:28:14,610 --> 00:28:16,650
Okay, time for a "Where are we?"

489
00:28:16,650 --> 00:28:18,630
Bear in mind we're heading for a future

490
00:28:18,630 --> 00:28:21,690
with AI-powered avatars so realistic,

491
00:28:21,690 --> 00:28:23,983
they'll be indistinguishable from us.

492
00:28:23,983 --> 00:28:27,330
A dreaded shipworm, Brunel's tunneling machine,

493
00:28:27,330 --> 00:28:30,990
Brunel's son Isambard revolutionizes engineering use

494
00:28:30,990 --> 00:28:34,380
in iron, Victorian engineers use iron for everything,

495
00:28:34,380 --> 00:28:38,040
including a bridge that collapses, leading to an inquiry

496
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,980
by Stokes, the Royal Society Secretary,

497
00:28:40,980 --> 00:28:43,110
who enrolls a man named Herapath

498
00:28:43,110 --> 00:28:46,320
who believes dog urine can change the world,

499
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,950
which it does as an ingredient in polarizing filters

500
00:28:49,950 --> 00:28:53,490
which are used by Land in the U-2 spy plane,

501
00:28:53,490 --> 00:28:56,340
which photographs Russian R-7 rockets that are able

502
00:28:56,340 --> 00:28:59,010
to launch satellites into space like Sputnik.

503
00:28:59,010 --> 00:29:03,450
This prompts the US to set up ARPA to produce innovations

504
00:29:03,450 --> 00:29:07,080
that will keep America ahead, for example,

505
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:08,930
playing around with things like this.

506
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,122
A beetle.

507
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,170
See, the most far-out idea to emerge from the upper labs is

508
00:29:16,170 --> 00:29:18,393
the idea of insect cyborgs.

509
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,200
This involves putting micro-mechanical devices inside

510
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,800
an insect in the late stages of its change from a larva

511
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,620
because that means the insect tissue will grow round

512
00:29:28,620 --> 00:29:31,950
the device and fix it in place to do its job,

513
00:29:31,950 --> 00:29:34,353
which ideally is to go where you tell it.

514
00:29:35,339 --> 00:29:37,680
It turns out, beetles are best for this kind of work

515
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,839
because they're strong and big and can carry heavy weights.

516
00:29:42,540 --> 00:29:45,120
Electric stimulation of the beetle brain gives you control

517
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,330
over the flight path, the aim to fly

518
00:29:48,330 --> 00:29:51,930
within five and a half yards, gather data,

519
00:29:51,930 --> 00:29:54,480
and even take pictures.

520
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,450
Here's an early example of what you can do to control

521
00:29:57,450 --> 00:29:58,353
the insect flight.

522
00:30:04,410 --> 00:30:07,213
Stop.

523
00:30:08,100 --> 00:30:10,320
And here's what the end product of research

524
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:11,738
with insects might be.

525
00:30:13,860 --> 00:30:17,433
Micro-air vehicles at work in a future wall.

526
00:30:19,860 --> 00:30:21,390
And they're not far off,

527
00:30:21,390 --> 00:30:24,144
we just need to iron out all the bugs.

528
00:30:26,490 --> 00:30:28,770
But apart from weird and still secret stuff

529
00:30:28,770 --> 00:30:31,740
like cyber insects, Harper's key effort has been

530
00:30:31,740 --> 00:30:34,830
to find ways of using technology to take soldiers

531
00:30:34,830 --> 00:30:35,973
out of harm's way.

532
00:30:37,170 --> 00:30:39,390
Like a robot replacement that can be controlled

533
00:30:39,390 --> 00:30:41,820
from hundreds or even thousands of miles away

534
00:30:41,820 --> 00:30:42,870
from the battlefield.

535
00:30:44,310 --> 00:30:47,430
A human soldier back at base, or somewhere safe off

536
00:30:47,430 --> 00:30:51,060
the battlefield wears a virtual reality display

537
00:30:51,060 --> 00:30:54,270
and a suit with sensors and activators to unite them

538
00:30:54,270 --> 00:30:56,280
with their machine twin.

539
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,880
Well, that's the theory, and this brings us

540
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:03,090
to the basic requirement that comes into every aspect

541
00:31:03,090 --> 00:31:07,200
of ARPA Research, the human-computer interface,

542
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,110
machine intelligence, people talking to machines,

543
00:31:10,110 --> 00:31:12,110
above all, machines talking back.

544
00:31:14,156 --> 00:31:16,320
So, the key need is for the machine to know

545
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,110
the rules of language and the meaning of all the words,

546
00:31:19,110 --> 00:31:20,520
and how to recognize everything it's

547
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,163
likely to come across and know everything's name.

548
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,610
The American Defense Research Agency wants

549
00:31:26,610 --> 00:31:29,610
to develop this here and talk back capability in machines

550
00:31:29,610 --> 00:31:32,808
that might replace human soldiers and interact with them.

551
00:31:36,420 --> 00:31:39,750
The tools to do this complicated task are stunningly simple.

552
00:31:39,750 --> 00:31:42,393
You could even say it's child's play.

553
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,380
Developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

554
00:31:46,380 --> 00:31:51,380
in 1968, and called Shrdlu, a joke name taken

555
00:31:51,750 --> 00:31:54,633
from the layout of typeset on a printing machine.

556
00:31:56,580 --> 00:31:59,400
It's a virtual world of blocks filled with a small number

557
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,417
of shapes, each with a name,

558
00:32:02,417 --> 00:32:06,333
cone, block ball, and pyramid.

559
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,527
This very early version of artificial intelligence gives

560
00:32:10,527 --> 00:32:12,960
the computer a world that can be dealt with

561
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,430
in about 50 words.

562
00:32:14,430 --> 00:32:19,430
Nouns like block, and verbs like place on or move to,

563
00:32:19,860 --> 00:32:22,677
and adjectives like blue or big.

564
00:32:24,990 --> 00:32:25,920
To do all this,

565
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,750
the computer has rules about the block world,

566
00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:31,353
so it understands all the properties of its environment.

567
00:32:32,700 --> 00:32:36,180
In most cases, the early-shared blue tests involve dealing

568
00:32:36,180 --> 00:32:38,940
with commands about what to do with the blocks.

569
00:32:38,940 --> 00:32:40,380
It's pretty simple stuff.

570
00:32:40,380 --> 00:32:45,003
Pick up the block behind the tall one and put it in the box.

571
00:32:45,900 --> 00:32:48,750
And the program can, if necessary, ask you what you mean.

572
00:32:49,770 --> 00:32:52,200
Now, this is all happening more than 15 years ago,

573
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,860
so it seems a bit dated, but this very primitive speech

574
00:32:55,860 --> 00:33:00,510
and response program was the first step towards talking

575
00:33:00,510 --> 00:33:01,627
and answering machines.

576
00:33:04,050 --> 00:33:07,593
But that's just using 50 words, a fraction of those in use.

577
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,000
The Oxford English Dictionary gives a total of currently

578
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:17,000
in-use words of 171,476, include all forms of all words

579
00:33:18,780 --> 00:33:22,410
like run, running, and ran and obsolete words

580
00:33:22,410 --> 00:33:25,383
like, me thinks, and you're heading towards half a million.

581
00:33:26,850 --> 00:33:29,040
Imagine if you could use all those words.

582
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:30,783
Command a computer naturally.

583
00:33:31,890 --> 00:33:32,940
In the last 50 years,

584
00:33:32,940 --> 00:33:35,100
there have been massive advances in the capacity

585
00:33:35,100 --> 00:33:37,860
of computing to handle the human attempt to communicate

586
00:33:37,860 --> 00:33:39,753
with computers in a natural way.

587
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,540
We now have Artificial Intelligence chatbots.

588
00:33:45,540 --> 00:33:48,510
Part of an industry projected to be worth $15 trillion

589
00:33:48,510 --> 00:33:53,510
by 2030, AI chatbots are proliferating faster

590
00:33:54,030 --> 00:33:56,430
than any technology that came before.

591
00:33:56,430 --> 00:33:59,040
And not only do they memorize dictionaries,

592
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,520
they look at how these words have been used by humans.

593
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,910
See, large language model chatbots like chat,

594
00:34:05,910 --> 00:34:10,910
TPT and Google Bar work by analyzing millions of documents

595
00:34:11,220 --> 00:34:13,770
on subject chosen by the developers.

596
00:34:13,770 --> 00:34:17,070
After processing billions of words and how they get used,

597
00:34:17,070 --> 00:34:21,600
the AI can form new coherent sentences, word at a time

598
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,190
by calculating the probability

599
00:34:23,190 --> 00:34:25,200
of what the next word will be.

600
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,870
And by using the internet as the data source,

601
00:34:27,870 --> 00:34:31,263
the AI has access to the entirety of human knowledge.

602
00:34:32,310 --> 00:34:36,270
Now, imagine if we gave this AI chatbot a face,

603
00:34:36,270 --> 00:34:38,537
a body, an avatar?

604
00:34:41,910 --> 00:34:42,963
What's an avatar?

605
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,670
Here's me as an avatar, and here's me

606
00:34:47,670 --> 00:34:50,673
when I started making these films back in 1978.

607
00:34:52,650 --> 00:34:54,633
I've been de-aged.

608
00:34:55,590 --> 00:34:58,260
I can modify the digital face or figure to be exactly

609
00:34:58,260 --> 00:35:01,080
the kind of person I want the avatar to be.

610
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,230
It can be walking, sitting, standing.

611
00:35:04,230 --> 00:35:06,790
See, the digital body can move the same way I move

612
00:35:07,890 --> 00:35:10,948
or move the way somebody else moves like this dancer.

613
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,970
The most recent work already promises the opportunity

614
00:35:32,970 --> 00:35:36,150
to mix avatars and virtual reality, so that you can,

615
00:35:36,150 --> 00:35:40,680
for instance, have a meeting with colleagues from anywhere,

616
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,110
show and exchange what you brought to the meeting,

617
00:35:43,110 --> 00:35:45,780
discuss and create anything the meeting wants to make,

618
00:35:45,780 --> 00:35:48,210
and do it all in a virtual space,

619
00:35:48,210 --> 00:35:50,933
recreating any kind of environment you prefer.

620
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,900
Today, the avatars representing you look like you

621
00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:02,170
but clearly, are not you

622
00:36:03,240 --> 00:36:05,730
because although computer graphics are improving,

623
00:36:05,730 --> 00:36:06,720
we are still in the realm

624
00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,690
of what people call Uncanny Valley,

625
00:36:09,690 --> 00:36:11,460
where it's not quite real enough,

626
00:36:11,460 --> 00:36:15,240
but not quite cartoony enough, somewhere in between.

627
00:36:15,240 --> 00:36:19,500
Somewhere not quite human and weepy,

628
00:36:19,500 --> 00:36:20,970
but not for much longer.

629
00:36:20,970 --> 00:36:24,810
Graphics processing power today is already 10 times faster

630
00:36:24,810 --> 00:36:26,910
than it was just eight years ago,

631
00:36:26,910 --> 00:36:30,930
and that power is doubling every two and a half years.

632
00:36:30,930 --> 00:36:34,560
So, we're not far off a virtual avatar that will look human

633
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,020
in the way it adjusts its facial expression to suit

634
00:36:37,020 --> 00:36:38,688
the words it's saying.

635
00:36:44,603 --> 00:36:45,870
In just a few years,

636
00:36:45,870 --> 00:36:47,940
avatars could be pretty much indistinguishable

637
00:36:47,940 --> 00:36:48,903
from real people.

638
00:36:50,340 --> 00:36:52,680
And advantages in artificial intelligence will give

639
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,313
every avatar at least the equivalent of a human brain,

640
00:36:58,020 --> 00:37:01,323
but a brain holding the sum of all knowledge,

641
00:37:03,660 --> 00:37:07,200
and avatars will start appearing everywhere

642
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,000
and they'll make life a lot easier.

643
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,850
No more waiting for one of our agents to answer your call

644
00:37:11,850 --> 00:37:13,260
when they're free.

645
00:37:13,260 --> 00:37:15,300
Talk to the customer services avatar for as long

646
00:37:15,300 --> 00:37:16,500
as you like.

647
00:37:16,500 --> 00:37:19,110
It might even be your favorite movie star,

648
00:37:19,110 --> 00:37:21,480
and they'll take as long as you want to explain

649
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,760
whatever it is you need to know.

650
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,100
And there will not be a question they can't answer.

651
00:37:30,300 --> 00:37:31,590
Education, for instance,

652
00:37:31,590 --> 00:37:34,500
will involve totally realistic teacher avatars,

653
00:37:34,500 --> 00:37:37,410
working with individual students one-on-one,

654
00:37:37,410 --> 00:37:40,770
teaching each student in the idiosyncratic way

655
00:37:40,770 --> 00:37:43,620
that suits that student best.

656
00:37:43,620 --> 00:37:45,630
And, of course, the teachers will have the whole

657
00:37:45,630 --> 00:37:47,580
of human knowledge to call on.

658
00:37:47,580 --> 00:37:49,533
They will know everything.

659
00:37:50,610 --> 00:37:51,480
The machine might learn

660
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,200
to read our personal facial expressions so that it can react

661
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,253
to our moods.

662
00:37:57,660 --> 00:37:59,700
And it won't belong from that point

663
00:37:59,700 --> 00:38:01,020
to get avatar faces,

664
00:38:01,020 --> 00:38:03,930
they can express their own facial emotions acting

665
00:38:03,930 --> 00:38:05,283
in response to yours.

666
00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:09,450
But there are questions as we are already discovering

667
00:38:09,450 --> 00:38:10,890
in the present world of social media

668
00:38:10,890 --> 00:38:14,010
and instant access is everything you see

669
00:38:14,010 --> 00:38:15,243
all it claims to be.

670
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,450
But what do we see in the near future is likely

671
00:38:18,450 --> 00:38:20,100
to be an avatar,

672
00:38:20,100 --> 00:38:22,173
how will we know real from fake?

673
00:38:23,310 --> 00:38:27,840
Powered by AI, they might not even need humans anymore.

674
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,920
Independent entities in themselves

675
00:38:31,230 --> 00:38:36,150
and self-awareness might give such avatars the desire

676
00:38:36,150 --> 00:38:38,103
for at least equality with us humans.

677
00:38:39,630 --> 00:38:41,640
So, will we need to restructure our institutions

678
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,043
and our culture to include avatars?

679
00:38:44,910 --> 00:38:48,813
Give them social power, give them every privilege we have,

680
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:50,782
but how will they use that?

681
00:38:57,900 --> 00:38:59,280
So, should we be thinking

682
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,890
about whether we need regulations regarding exactly

683
00:39:01,890 --> 00:39:03,920
what they'll be able to do for us?

684
00:39:07,890 --> 00:39:09,551
Or to us?

685
00:39:17,790 --> 00:39:20,850
What consequences will avatars have on the economy?

686
00:39:20,850 --> 00:39:22,230
What about jobs?

687
00:39:22,230 --> 00:39:23,542
Will they replace us?

688
00:39:27,810 --> 00:39:30,699
Avatars are coming soon to a screen near you.

689
00:39:37,410 --> 00:39:42,410
PS I'm not an avatar or am I, or am I...

690
00:39:43,329 --> 00:39:44,520
Or am I.

690
00:39:45,305 --> 00:40:45,416
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