"Connections with James Burke" None of This is Real

1 00:00:02,242 --> 00:00:04,849 Enjoy! 2 00:00:04,849 --> 00:00:08,130 In the next 20 years, we're about to see what may turn out 3 00:00:08,130 --> 00:00:09,540 to be the biggest changes 4 00:00:09,540 --> 00:00:11,635 to the way, we live in human history. 5 00:00:19,890 --> 00:00:22,320 I'm James Burke, and I'm gonna take you 6 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,960 on a journey through time, joining up the dots 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,080 in about 10 connections, charting the people, 8 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:30,960 objects, and ideas that change history 9 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,896 in the most surprising ways. 10 00:00:36,384 --> 00:00:39,722 To tell you the incredible story of how we got here. 11 00:00:41,863 --> 00:00:43,028 Where we're going next? 12 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:51,180 This series is about the process of change 13 00:00:51,180 --> 00:00:53,920 and why the future is being shaped by everything we do 14 00:00:54,965 --> 00:00:57,482 and is not going to be what we expect. 15 00:00:58,620 --> 00:01:00,870 Because that's the way change happens. 16 00:01:00,870 --> 00:01:03,270 Cause and effect. 17 00:01:03,270 --> 00:01:07,470 You innovate to solve a problem and even if you succeed, 18 00:01:07,470 --> 00:01:10,470 there's always an unexpected outcome that triggers the need 19 00:01:10,470 --> 00:01:11,512 for another innovation, and so on. 20 00:01:14,609 --> 00:01:17,793 That's why nobody in the past knew what was coming next, 21 00:01:21,748 --> 00:01:24,030 The sequence of connections leads 22 00:01:24,030 --> 00:01:26,940 like a falling set of dominoes to an innovation 23 00:01:26,940 --> 00:01:29,374 that's set to transform humankind. 24 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:32,580 So, where do we want to go from here? 25 00:01:32,580 --> 00:01:33,679 What's the next connection? 26 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:41,074 Watch Online Movies and Series for FREE www.osdb.link/lm 27 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,930 So, this is the future we're heading for. 28 00:01:51,930 --> 00:01:54,480 Artificial-intelligence-powered avatars 29 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,380 so realistic, they'll be indistinguishable from us. 30 00:01:58,380 --> 00:02:01,893 No more search engines, pages of links, or online forms. 31 00:02:02,940 --> 00:02:06,120 Human-looking AI will be the new gatekeeper 32 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:07,950 to all the knowledge of the world. 33 00:02:07,950 --> 00:02:11,730 It'll look like us, sound like us, and act like us, 34 00:02:11,730 --> 00:02:15,600 using deep learning to adapt and evolve with us. 35 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:17,580 What will that mean for humanity? 36 00:02:17,580 --> 00:02:19,860 Give it some thought while we follow the trail 37 00:02:19,860 --> 00:02:23,550 of connections that leads to a future where AI becomes, 38 00:02:23,550 --> 00:02:27,420 well, human and it starts over 200 years ago 39 00:02:27,420 --> 00:02:30,393 with something really boring, this. 40 00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:33,390 If you are a shipbuilder back in the days 41 00:02:33,390 --> 00:02:37,350 of wooden ships, this could be a bit of your vessel 42 00:02:37,350 --> 00:02:41,190 and this is what your ships are could look like 43 00:02:41,190 --> 00:02:45,813 after your ship has bumped into a shipworm and been bored. 44 00:02:47,580 --> 00:02:50,220 We carry the little worms in our wooden ships 45 00:02:50,220 --> 00:02:51,960 all over the planet. 46 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:55,140 They reproduce four times a year and each time, 47 00:02:55,140 --> 00:02:58,290 depending on what type has infested the ship, 48 00:02:58,290 --> 00:03:00,987 there could be up to 5 million baby worms 49 00:03:00,987 --> 00:03:04,271 and all they do is eat wood and die. 50 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,590 But wait until you see how the shipworm changes history 51 00:03:10,590 --> 00:03:13,590 when this bright young man takes a look at one. 52 00:03:13,590 --> 00:03:17,280 See, in 1802, a Frenchman called Marc Brunel, 53 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,130 who's been the New York Chief Engineer for a few years, 54 00:03:20,130 --> 00:03:23,880 fetches up in Portsmouth with a new ship-building idea 55 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,303 for saving the Navy a fortune in labor costs. 56 00:03:28,170 --> 00:03:31,500 See loading and unloading ships back then uses 57 00:03:31,500 --> 00:03:34,410 what's called block-and-tackle to lift 58 00:03:34,410 --> 00:03:38,010 and move heavy weights like guns or supplies 59 00:03:38,010 --> 00:03:39,660 that tackles the rope 60 00:03:39,660 --> 00:03:41,820 and each wooden blocks a different size, 61 00:03:41,820 --> 00:03:45,243 depending on the job, there could be hundreds on each ship. 62 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,680 The Royal Navy alone gets through a hundred thousand a year, 63 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,740 using a multitude of trained carpenters, 64 00:03:52,740 --> 00:03:56,880 each chipping them down to size, it's laborious, 65 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,370 and then the blocks get damaged need replacing, 66 00:03:59,370 --> 00:04:01,143 so it's also expensive. 67 00:04:02,820 --> 00:04:05,670 So, Brunel automates the block-making process 68 00:04:05,670 --> 00:04:08,970 and saves a ton of money using a theory called 69 00:04:08,970 --> 00:04:10,134 the Division of Labor. 70 00:04:17,460 --> 00:04:20,880 10 unskilled men on a series of machines, 71 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,850 each machine doing one bit of the production 72 00:04:23,850 --> 00:04:26,313 in a system called a block mill, 73 00:04:27,270 --> 00:04:28,650 all doing the work that used 74 00:04:28,650 --> 00:04:31,080 to take over a hundred craftsmen. 75 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,968 It's probably the industrial world's first assembly line. 76 00:04:36,660 --> 00:04:39,630 News of Brunel's block mill reaches far and wide 77 00:04:39,630 --> 00:04:40,980 on the Maritime Grapevine. 78 00:04:40,980 --> 00:04:44,250 Even Admiral Nelson turns up to take a look on his way 79 00:04:44,250 --> 00:04:45,519 to the Battle of Trafalgar. 80 00:04:49,230 --> 00:04:52,290 So, by now Brunel has made a name for himself. 81 00:04:52,290 --> 00:04:55,153 So, the London authorities threw him a challenge. 82 00:04:57,300 --> 00:04:59,190 The River Thames. 83 00:04:59,190 --> 00:05:01,260 See this stretch of water? 84 00:05:01,260 --> 00:05:05,760 In 1823, the only way across was by Ferry. 85 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,870 So, the idea is to dig a tunnel under the Thames, 86 00:05:09,870 --> 00:05:12,867 the might of Victorian industry taming the world. 87 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:16,960 So, what does Brunel think of as a solution? 88 00:05:17,940 --> 00:05:20,940 Here's where tiny connections link to colossal achievements 89 00:05:20,940 --> 00:05:23,640 because if you want to dig a tunnel that won't collapse 90 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,399 on your head, you copy the shipworm. 91 00:05:28,380 --> 00:05:31,140 See around the worm's head there's a couple of curved bits 92 00:05:31,140 --> 00:05:34,290 of shell acting like cutters and delivering bits of wood 93 00:05:34,290 --> 00:05:36,510 to the mouth and at the same time, 94 00:05:36,510 --> 00:05:39,990 protecting the worm's head, Brunel upscales 95 00:05:39,990 --> 00:05:43,397 the principle designing a brand-new excavator system. 96 00:05:51,570 --> 00:05:55,184 36 wooden cells, each were the workman inside, 97 00:05:55,184 --> 00:05:58,980 each acting like the shipworm digging away 98 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,770 The whole setup pushed forward on rails 99 00:06:04,770 --> 00:06:08,403 just inches at a time as a digging advances. 100 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,887 Here's what the job looks like when they finished. 101 00:06:13,290 --> 00:06:16,340 In London, under the Thames between whopping 102 00:06:16,340 --> 00:06:19,680 and rather high, a pedestrian tunnel 103 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:23,970 more than 1,500 feet long, in its first four months, 104 00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:27,270 more than a million people walk through just 105 00:06:27,270 --> 00:06:28,420 to say they've done it. 106 00:06:30,090 --> 00:06:32,040 In 1865, the tunnel becomes part 107 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,590 of the London subway system, an inspiration 108 00:06:34,590 --> 00:06:37,140 for tunnel builders all over the world 109 00:06:37,140 --> 00:06:39,330 and it's still going strong today, 110 00:06:39,330 --> 00:06:42,663 thanks to the little shipworm and Brunel. 111 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,120 But it's an event that happens during construction 112 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:49,680 that triggers the next in our series 113 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,710 of surprising connections that will eventually lead us 114 00:06:52,710 --> 00:06:54,686 to AI-powered avatar. 115 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,780 See, Brunel is so confident about his invention, 116 00:07:00,780 --> 00:07:03,390 he let his son Isambard sit up front 117 00:07:03,390 --> 00:07:04,293 during tunneling. 118 00:07:05,430 --> 00:07:07,050 A budding engineer himself, 119 00:07:07,050 --> 00:07:09,720 the boy takes on most of the tunneling job, 120 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:11,470 learning the ropes from his father. 121 00:07:13,620 --> 00:07:16,110 The crew begin to report bits of China falling 122 00:07:16,110 --> 00:07:17,510 from the roof of the tunnel. 123 00:07:18,390 --> 00:07:19,590 It means only one thing. 124 00:07:20,550 --> 00:07:23,220 The riverbed, littered with thousands of years 125 00:07:23,220 --> 00:07:25,719 of human debris is very close. 126 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,202 Then in 1828, disaster strikes. 127 00:07:37,290 --> 00:07:38,397 The river breaks through 128 00:07:38,397 --> 00:07:41,220 and the flooding does so much damage, it shuts down the dig 129 00:07:46,500 --> 00:07:47,333 It also happens 130 00:07:47,333 --> 00:07:50,376 to half-drown Brunel Junior and put him in hospital. 131 00:07:56,160 --> 00:08:00,480 Seriously injured, Isambard gets a lot of convalescent time 132 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,990 to think about doing other jobs besides digging tunnels. 133 00:08:03,990 --> 00:08:06,780 So, with nothing else to do, he designed something 134 00:08:06,780 --> 00:08:08,463 up to now thought impossible. 135 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,930 The amazing Clifton Suspension Bridge in Bristol, England, 136 00:08:15,930 --> 00:08:20,340 an architectural marvel, Isambard called it "My First Love". 137 00:08:20,340 --> 00:08:21,393 And you can see why. 138 00:08:22,470 --> 00:08:25,200 Spanning a 250-foot high gorge, 139 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,600 the Bridge is anchored to the bedrock, 140 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:32,114 using colossal iron chains stretching 65 feet underground. 141 00:08:35,070 --> 00:08:38,580 Brunel spends three years sourcing iron of iron 142 00:08:38,580 --> 00:08:40,323 of quality to take the weight. 143 00:08:41,490 --> 00:08:43,944 Nobody's ever seen anything like it. 144 00:08:43,944 --> 00:08:48,390 150,000 people packed the streets for to grand opening 145 00:08:48,390 --> 00:08:53,010 in 1864, and it's still going strong today. 146 00:08:53,010 --> 00:08:56,210 All thanks to Isambard's revolutionary use of iron. 147 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,163 Next, thinks Isambard, "What else can iron do? 148 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,140 How about 1000 miles of strong, 149 00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:10,080 super-efficient railway track to connect-up towns 150 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:11,630 and cities across the country?" 151 00:09:13,170 --> 00:09:15,783 So, he builds the Great Western Railway, 152 00:09:16,770 --> 00:09:19,890 which makes it possible to run a new generation of faster, 153 00:09:19,890 --> 00:09:23,220 smoother locomotives traveling along at almost double 154 00:09:23,220 --> 00:09:24,770 the speed of their competitors. 155 00:09:26,443 --> 00:09:29,820 Isambard and others like him, race to lay track 156 00:09:29,820 --> 00:09:33,300 and a price war follows; train travel is now democratized 157 00:09:33,300 --> 00:09:35,913 because now anybody can afford a ticket. 158 00:09:36,750 --> 00:09:40,500 Ideas spread, so do goods, nook, cheese, 159 00:09:40,500 --> 00:09:45,289 meats coming from field to table, all on iron tracks. 160 00:09:47,250 --> 00:09:48,393 But he's not done yet. 161 00:09:49,470 --> 00:09:52,290 All the while, Isambard is thinking beyond borders 162 00:09:52,290 --> 00:09:53,970 because he's also been thinking 163 00:09:53,970 --> 00:09:57,300 about revolutionizing shipping using iron 164 00:09:57,300 --> 00:10:01,820 to make steamships bigger, faster, and stronger. 165 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,853 So, that's the end of the shipworm problem for a start. 166 00:10:10,050 --> 00:10:13,140 Three giant steamships later, he's changed 167 00:10:13,140 --> 00:10:15,630 the business of oceanic trade everywhere 168 00:10:15,630 --> 00:10:18,594 and pioneered ocean-going iron holes. 169 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,160 Isambard's three ships are powered by coal, 170 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:27,990 feeding huge steam engines 171 00:10:27,990 --> 00:10:31,743 that turn either massive screw propellers or huge paddles. 172 00:10:32,850 --> 00:10:34,830 And if there's enough wind, as is often the case 173 00:10:34,830 --> 00:10:37,740 in the Atlantic, they can switch the engines off, 174 00:10:37,740 --> 00:10:41,463 hoist huge sails and travel well for free. 175 00:10:42,780 --> 00:10:45,720 In 1838, his first ship, the Great Western, 176 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,123 arrives in New York with fuel to spare. 177 00:10:49,341 --> 00:10:51,314 Isambard is connecting the world. 178 00:10:53,730 --> 00:10:55,980 Okay, time for a "Where are we?" 179 00:10:55,980 --> 00:10:58,080 How is all this leading us to the future 180 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,260 where AI-powered avatars will be so realistic, 181 00:11:01,260 --> 00:11:03,393 they'll be indistinguishable from us. 182 00:11:04,328 --> 00:11:07,830 The dreaded shipworm which inspires Brunel Senior's 183 00:11:07,830 --> 00:11:10,080 tunnel-boring machine, a tunnel collapse, 184 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,020 almost kills his son Isambard and puts him 185 00:11:13,020 --> 00:11:16,890 in hospital where he designs a huge bridge, 186 00:11:16,890 --> 00:11:19,710 then builds a railway network and three steamships, 187 00:11:19,710 --> 00:11:22,708 connecting up the world with iron. 188 00:11:27,293 --> 00:11:30,810 And all the while Victorian engineers are experimenting 189 00:11:30,810 --> 00:11:33,270 with new ways to mass-produce iron. 190 00:11:33,270 --> 00:11:36,333 Refining the age-old process of casting iron. 191 00:11:37,620 --> 00:11:40,350 An iron and charcoal mix is poured into a cast 192 00:11:40,350 --> 00:11:44,100 like a jelly mold, taking any shape you like, 193 00:11:44,100 --> 00:11:46,740 but not every town has a metal foundry, 194 00:11:46,740 --> 00:11:48,300 so the molten metal is poured 195 00:11:48,300 --> 00:11:52,113 into a brick-shaped mold called a pig, and cooled. 196 00:11:53,010 --> 00:11:54,480 These portable bricks, 197 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:57,510 pig iron can now go from factory to factory 198 00:11:57,510 --> 00:12:00,480 to get melted back down into any shape you want. 199 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,980 The technology spreads so they're using it for everything. 200 00:12:04,980 --> 00:12:09,980 Cast iron fireplaces, cast iron staircases, cast iron gates, 201 00:12:10,560 --> 00:12:15,000 door handles, shoe scrapers, bathtubs, pipes, radiators, 202 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,040 products that can now be mass-produced 203 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,040 and owned by anybody with a bit of cash. 204 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,670 Iron, it seems, has no limit to its use. 205 00:12:23,670 --> 00:12:28,230 Enter Isambard's competitor and good old Robert Stephenson, 206 00:12:28,230 --> 00:12:31,140 another railway pioneer who incidentally, 207 00:12:31,140 --> 00:12:34,187 invents a new kind of steam, train the rocket. 208 00:12:37,860 --> 00:12:40,110 Like Brunel, he's also a bridge builder 209 00:12:40,110 --> 00:12:41,250 and bridges other things 210 00:12:41,250 --> 00:12:44,160 that make sure the new train network can reach every part 211 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:45,720 of the country. 212 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,810 Stephenson designs a bridge over a river in England, 213 00:12:48,810 --> 00:12:52,440 using new cast iron girders and it's one of the longest 214 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:54,360 of its kind in the world. 215 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,320 Sound good, but it turns out that unlike normal iron, 216 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:02,220 cast iron has a high carbon content and weakens 217 00:13:02,220 --> 00:13:03,633 if it has to bend too much, 218 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:06,840 and what will bend cast iron, 219 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,000 well, heavy locomotives would do the trick, 220 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:10,980 especially, when they cross the bridge back 221 00:13:10,980 --> 00:13:12,963 and forth several times a week. 222 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:15,310 So, guess what happens? 223 00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:18,820 On the 24th of May 1847, 224 00:13:18,820 --> 00:13:22,560 while a train is on its way across the bridge, as it start 225 00:13:22,560 --> 00:13:27,030 to cross the third spam, one of the girders suddenly fails 226 00:13:27,030 --> 00:13:31,443 and most of the train falls 30 feet down into the river. 227 00:13:32,310 --> 00:13:35,314 Five deaths, nine serious injuries, 228 00:13:35,314 --> 00:13:39,693 and lured newspaper headline. 229 00:13:47,713 --> 00:13:51,360 Stephenson looks to be in big trouble. 230 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,543 In 1849, a Royal Commission is set up to investigate. 231 00:13:55,890 --> 00:13:58,950 In their report, although they exonerate Stephenson, 232 00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:01,740 they condemn the design of the bridge and ban the use 233 00:14:01,740 --> 00:14:03,933 of cast iron trusses in railway bridges. 234 00:14:06,150 --> 00:14:08,220 The Royal Commission is made up of analytical thinkers, 235 00:14:08,220 --> 00:14:11,130 including an advisor, the new Professor of Math 236 00:14:11,130 --> 00:14:14,520 at Cambridge, George Stokes, who knows everybody 237 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,190 who's anybody, and who is a mover and shaker 238 00:14:17,190 --> 00:14:19,500 in anything to do with science. 239 00:14:19,500 --> 00:14:22,290 Now, this is where huge connection to purely 240 00:14:22,290 --> 00:14:26,520 on who you know because Stokes, his secretary, 241 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,190 to the scientific royal society, 242 00:14:29,190 --> 00:14:33,450 and in 1859, he welcomes a new member, a toxicologist 243 00:14:33,450 --> 00:14:37,563 who's also a pal called William Bird Herapath. 244 00:14:38,670 --> 00:14:41,610 I bother you with him because this is truly one 245 00:14:41,610 --> 00:14:43,710 of those totally unexpected innovations 246 00:14:43,710 --> 00:14:47,280 that you do never believe. 247 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:48,113 Because the key 248 00:14:48,113 --> 00:14:51,878 to Herapath's amazing world-changing discovery is dog pee. 249 00:14:53,580 --> 00:14:57,030 And a new substance, known as Herapathite, 250 00:14:57,030 --> 00:14:59,850 which whether you know it or not, you care about 251 00:14:59,850 --> 00:15:01,743 on any particularly bright day. 252 00:15:02,910 --> 00:15:04,653 Let's start with the dog urine. 253 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,230 In 1852, one of Herapath's students notices as you would, 254 00:15:10,230 --> 00:15:13,740 that if you add iodine to dog urine, 255 00:15:13,740 --> 00:15:16,470 if the dog has already been fed quinine, okay, okay, 256 00:15:16,470 --> 00:15:18,570 but this is what geeks do. 257 00:15:18,570 --> 00:15:20,973 Then you get needle-like crystals. 258 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,300 This is the Herapathite I mentioned, 259 00:15:24,300 --> 00:15:26,430 which, of course, then gets examined by Herapath 260 00:15:26,430 --> 00:15:28,140 under his microscope, 261 00:15:28,140 --> 00:15:30,780 whereupon the crystals reveal themselves 262 00:15:30,780 --> 00:15:33,543 to be capable of polarizing light. 263 00:15:34,980 --> 00:15:38,310 First of all, here's what polarized means. 264 00:15:38,310 --> 00:15:41,820 Okay, light radiates in all directions, right? 265 00:15:41,820 --> 00:15:45,390 Vertical, horizontal, and everywhere in between. 266 00:15:45,390 --> 00:15:48,150 The light you are looking at here now, for example, 267 00:15:48,150 --> 00:15:51,060 also includes the light waves produced by reflections off 268 00:15:51,060 --> 00:15:53,520 the water surface that called glare. 269 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:57,690 In this every which way state it's called unpolarized. 270 00:15:57,690 --> 00:15:59,100 If you could polarize the light, 271 00:15:59,100 --> 00:16:02,550 you could in principle, block all the light waves except 272 00:16:02,550 --> 00:16:04,350 maybe the vertical one, 273 00:16:04,350 --> 00:16:06,540 and that way you cut out this glare 274 00:16:06,540 --> 00:16:08,090 from all the other light waves. 275 00:16:09,330 --> 00:16:11,103 Okay, back to Herapath and his crystals. 276 00:16:13,260 --> 00:16:17,010 If you lie one Herapath crystal on top of another, 277 00:16:17,010 --> 00:16:20,190 when you turn one of them, the crystals let through less 278 00:16:20,190 --> 00:16:23,430 and less light until at right angles to each other, 279 00:16:23,430 --> 00:16:25,503 they let through no light at all. 280 00:16:26,340 --> 00:16:29,070 Herapath works out a way to make large sheets 281 00:16:29,070 --> 00:16:31,800 of the material and then write it up as he does 282 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,710 all his stuff so badly, 283 00:16:34,710 --> 00:16:37,443 it's never published, and it's soon forgotten. 284 00:16:39,150 --> 00:16:41,430 But Herapathite is another one of those wonderful moments 285 00:16:41,430 --> 00:16:44,970 in the history of science, when a major innovation languages 286 00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:48,300 in obscurity until one day it bursts 287 00:16:48,300 --> 00:16:51,450 upon an astonished world and changes the future, 288 00:16:51,450 --> 00:16:53,010 which is what happens. 289 00:16:53,010 --> 00:16:56,130 It involves a Scottish scientist called David Brewster, 290 00:16:56,130 --> 00:16:58,713 best known for his invention of the kaleidoscope. 291 00:17:00,390 --> 00:17:02,460 In 1858, Brewster writes a book 292 00:17:02,460 --> 00:17:05,340 in which he mentions Herapath's forgotten dog urine, 293 00:17:05,340 --> 00:17:07,560 an experiment from six years earlier, 294 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,810 which he is once again forgotten about for 70 years 295 00:17:09,810 --> 00:17:11,703 because nobody reads Brewster's book. 296 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,600 And then, in 1926, 297 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,830 a young and talented physics student called Edwin Land comes 298 00:17:19,830 --> 00:17:22,080 across Herapath in his own reading 299 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:23,673 at the New York Public Library. 300 00:17:25,470 --> 00:17:28,380 He makes samples of the Herapathite concoction, 301 00:17:28,380 --> 00:17:31,443 sees what it can do, and horridly files a pattern. 302 00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:34,980 He's so excited he goes back to Harvard, 303 00:17:34,980 --> 00:17:37,500 hoping the labs there will help him discover more 304 00:17:37,500 --> 00:17:40,290 about what Herapath's needle crystals can do. 305 00:17:40,290 --> 00:17:41,619 He duly gets a lab to play in. 306 00:17:47,220 --> 00:17:51,690 Land's first aim is to create glare-proof car headlights. 307 00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:54,000 Alas, no interest in car makers. 308 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,843 So, he thinks why not try making sunglasses? 309 00:17:59,220 --> 00:18:03,390 So, he does, and sells them as Polaroid sunglasses, 310 00:18:03,390 --> 00:18:05,610 wear them and all you're getting is one set 311 00:18:05,610 --> 00:18:07,560 of light waves, no glare. 312 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:08,393 Great. 313 00:18:09,750 --> 00:18:12,450 Land's innovation is just in time. 314 00:18:12,450 --> 00:18:16,803 World War II arrives, and the military go for polarization 315 00:18:16,803 --> 00:18:20,130 in a big way. 316 00:18:20,130 --> 00:18:23,253 A pilot who sees the enemy first is a first to shoot. 317 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,900 Just take a look at what you see through military eyes act, 318 00:18:30,900 --> 00:18:33,900 for instance, the way glare makes a target difficult 319 00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:36,210 to see, and how much clearer things are 320 00:18:36,210 --> 00:18:38,133 through a polarized view of the enemy. 321 00:18:40,170 --> 00:18:42,990 It's an edge that can eventually play its part 322 00:18:42,990 --> 00:18:47,743 in winning a war. 323 00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:51,450 So, how is all this leading us to a future 324 00:18:51,450 --> 00:18:54,510 with AI-powered avatars so realistic, 325 00:18:54,510 --> 00:18:56,433 they'll be indistinguishable from us. 326 00:18:57,450 --> 00:18:59,010 The dreaded shipworm, 327 00:18:59,010 --> 00:19:01,650 Brunel Senior's tunnel boring machine, 328 00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:04,800 his son Isambard launches Britain's railways, 329 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:06,930 revolutionizing the use of iron, 330 00:19:06,930 --> 00:19:09,390 a technology embraced by Stephenson 331 00:19:09,390 --> 00:19:13,260 whose cast iron bridge disaster is examined by Stokes, 332 00:19:13,260 --> 00:19:15,930 who mixes with movers and shakers like William Herapath, 333 00:19:15,930 --> 00:19:19,980 the dog urine man, who discovers polarization used 334 00:19:19,980 --> 00:19:24,000 by Edwin Land to invent sunglasses which give fighter pilots 335 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,400 an advantage during the war. 336 00:19:26,550 --> 00:19:28,500 But Land isn't finished yet. 337 00:19:28,500 --> 00:19:30,810 He's on the verge of another world-changing innovation 338 00:19:30,810 --> 00:19:33,093 and it comes about by chance. 339 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:45,870 See, in 1943, Land is on vacation in Santa Fe 340 00:19:45,870 --> 00:19:47,973 and taking snaps for the family album. 341 00:19:48,990 --> 00:19:49,980 His little daughter asks 342 00:19:49,980 --> 00:19:53,430 why she can't see a photo immediately after it's been taken. 343 00:19:53,430 --> 00:19:56,160 And before they finish the day, a clever dad has worked out 344 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,600 how to do that. 345 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:58,967 Here's what he comes up with... 346 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,668 A Polaroid-instant camera. 347 00:20:08,666 --> 00:20:11,640 In a nutshell, the image of photographing comes in through 348 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,160 the lens, and is reflected by a mirror down 349 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,220 onto a negative, and it's rolled between the processing 350 00:20:17,220 --> 00:20:18,660 and developing chemicals. 351 00:20:18,660 --> 00:20:21,330 And after a minute, it's a photograph. 352 00:20:21,330 --> 00:20:22,922 The photo is called a Polaroid, 353 00:20:22,922 --> 00:20:25,472 and it takes the world by storm. 354 00:20:27,810 --> 00:20:30,270 When the Polaroid camera hits the shops after the war, 355 00:20:30,270 --> 00:20:34,080 it sells in the millions and between it and the sunglasses, 356 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,303 makes Land a very rich man. 357 00:20:37,830 --> 00:20:40,110 By this point, Land is a guy to go to 358 00:20:40,110 --> 00:20:42,150 when you're in difficulties and you need an innovation 359 00:20:42,150 --> 00:20:43,566 to help you out. 360 00:20:43,566 --> 00:20:45,270 War! 361 00:20:45,270 --> 00:20:46,950 And by the mid-1950s, 362 00:20:46,950 --> 00:20:48,360 it's the height of the Cold War, 363 00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:50,793 which means everybody's in difficulties. 364 00:20:52,808 --> 00:20:55,440 The stunning mule shall have the atom bomb 365 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,530 and has exported it first on America. 366 00:20:58,530 --> 00:21:02,970 So, we have two superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union, 367 00:21:02,970 --> 00:21:05,850 and a standoff, each has nuclear missiles 368 00:21:05,850 --> 00:21:07,440 that could end the world. 369 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,963 Each side needs to know what the other is up to. 370 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,800 To find that out, you need to fly over the enemy territory 371 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,730 and take a look, but there's no point if the plane can't see 372 00:21:17,730 --> 00:21:19,785 all the way down to the ground. 373 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,470 Land is summoned to the White House where he explains 374 00:21:25,470 --> 00:21:27,240 to President Eisenhower 375 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,960 that a camera he has designed can be strapped to a spy plane 376 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,560 and would be so accurate it would be able to see a golf ball 377 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:35,603 at over a mile. 378 00:21:38,070 --> 00:21:40,770 Now, Eisenhower is a keen golfer himself. 379 00:21:40,770 --> 00:21:43,470 He instantly green-lights the camera development, 380 00:21:43,470 --> 00:21:45,450 which now gives purpose to the plane 381 00:21:45,450 --> 00:21:46,653 the camera will go on. 382 00:21:49,380 --> 00:21:52,440 The plane's objective really pushes the envelope. 383 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:53,940 Getting to Russia and back, 384 00:21:53,940 --> 00:21:58,080 requires an operational flight distance of 7,000 miles. 385 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,530 It also has to fly over 13 miles up to be out of range 386 00:22:01,530 --> 00:22:04,890 of Soviet fighters and surface-to-air missile house. 387 00:22:04,890 --> 00:22:08,490 And from up there, the mission will be to take pictures 388 00:22:08,490 --> 00:22:12,720 of any object on the ground as small as two feet across 389 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,713 and produce as many as 4,000 pairs of stereoscopic photos. 390 00:22:20,250 --> 00:22:23,490 The plane taking these amazing pictures becomes known as 391 00:22:23,490 --> 00:22:26,540 the U-2 and is operated by the CIA. 392 00:22:33,510 --> 00:22:35,910 Now, to see anything from 13 miles away, 393 00:22:35,910 --> 00:22:39,093 the U-2 cameras need to be at maximum zoom. 394 00:22:40,830 --> 00:22:44,910 Complicating that at 70,000 feet just to keep flying, 395 00:22:44,910 --> 00:22:47,520 the pilot has a 13-mile-an-hour speed envelope 396 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,933 to keep insight of, faster or slower and he'll store. 397 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,100 So, there's little, if any, flexibility to comply with 398 00:22:56,100 --> 00:22:59,883 what the camera needs. 399 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,300 In 1957, the Americans detect 400 00:23:03,300 --> 00:23:05,130 the kind of radio signals you get 401 00:23:05,130 --> 00:23:07,350 when you're doing missile tests. 402 00:23:07,350 --> 00:23:11,487 Coming from near a place called Tyuratam in Kazakhstan, 403 00:23:11,487 --> 00:23:13,383 and a U-2 is sent to take a look. 404 00:23:16,260 --> 00:23:20,010 Since any missile launchpad will have to be accessible 405 00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:23,730 by missile-delivering railroad, the U-2 pilot is told 406 00:23:23,730 --> 00:23:25,590 to follow the main railroad through 407 00:23:25,590 --> 00:23:28,290 the neighboring Uzbekistan Capital, Tashkent, 408 00:23:28,290 --> 00:23:31,917 until they reach Kazakhstan and the suspect signals area. 409 00:23:34,290 --> 00:23:38,040 And sure enough, on August the 5th, 1957, 410 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:43,020 the U-2-photographed evidence of a big new launch complex. 411 00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:47,370 This, on the pad down there and too big to be hidden 412 00:23:47,370 --> 00:23:50,670 from follow on U-2 visits is a huge rocket known 413 00:23:50,670 --> 00:23:55,200 as the R-7 assembled horizontally and then rolled out 414 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:59,040 to be raised to the vertical position and fueled variance 415 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,680 of this game-changing rocket will be in operation 416 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,693 for the next 50 years and more. 417 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,520 The R-7 has a core stage, surrounded 418 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,530 by four strap-on boosters. 419 00:24:10,530 --> 00:24:13,263 Think of them as huge thermos flasks. 420 00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:17,283 And this is how it worked. 421 00:24:18,810 --> 00:24:21,630 The designers understood that certain gases ignite 422 00:24:21,630 --> 00:24:23,880 and that the thermos flask permits you 423 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,150 to store vast quantities of those gases safely 424 00:24:27,150 --> 00:24:30,450 in the frozen liquid form until you want to ignite them. 425 00:24:30,450 --> 00:24:33,600 At which point, you take the top off the flask, 426 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,410 the gases evaporate, you apply a light, and boom. 427 00:24:37,410 --> 00:24:40,350 Now, two gases do that better than any other. 428 00:24:40,350 --> 00:24:43,470 The two gases that are released from this particular version 429 00:24:43,470 --> 00:24:47,220 of a thermos flask, the one lying on its side behind me now, 430 00:24:47,220 --> 00:24:51,663 were kerosene and oxygen. 431 00:24:53,370 --> 00:24:56,940 If you release those two gases into a confined space 432 00:24:56,940 --> 00:24:59,340 with a hole at the other end of it, and mix 'em 433 00:24:59,340 --> 00:25:04,320 as you do so, and then set light to them, you get... 434 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:05,589 That. 435 00:25:09,750 --> 00:25:11,670 Once all four boosters light up, 436 00:25:11,670 --> 00:25:13,383 the core ignites the liftoff. 437 00:25:14,370 --> 00:25:18,543 The rocket can carry a six-ton warhead 5,000 miles. 438 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,830 So, the Soviets have an intercontinental ballistic list, 439 00:25:22,830 --> 00:25:26,100 that are capable of delivering a nuclear strike anywhere 440 00:25:26,100 --> 00:25:27,285 in the world. 441 00:25:33,990 --> 00:25:36,270 But before the Americans can get too worked up 442 00:25:36,270 --> 00:25:37,860 by this new threat, 443 00:25:37,860 --> 00:25:41,460 two months later on October the 4th, 1957, 444 00:25:41,460 --> 00:25:44,460 the R-7 changes the future in a big way, 445 00:25:44,460 --> 00:25:48,360 and gives the American Military the fright of their lives 446 00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:50,250 with the launch into orbit 447 00:25:50,250 --> 00:25:52,053 of the world's first satellite, 448 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,323 known as Sputnik, 449 00:25:56,310 --> 00:25:59,670 a basketball-size metal satellite that does nothing 450 00:25:59,670 --> 00:26:02,040 but orbit the earth and beep for 22 days 451 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,200 until its battery runs out. 452 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,520 And while the arguments are raging 453 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,160 about what to do about this, in November, 454 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,130 the Russians launch another Sputnik 455 00:26:10,130 --> 00:26:14,400 imaginably named Sputnik 2, complete with a passenger, 456 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:19,110 a dog called Laika, the first living creature in orbit. 457 00:26:19,110 --> 00:26:21,780 Sadly, a one-way ticket. 458 00:26:21,780 --> 00:26:24,318 Well, you know what comes next, the space race. 459 00:26:32,070 --> 00:26:34,440 The Americans try and catch up with the test 460 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,303 of their launch vehicle Vanguard. 461 00:26:37,170 --> 00:26:39,423 On December the 6th, this happened. 462 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,050 Watched by a mass TV audience, 463 00:26:49,050 --> 00:26:51,600 the American public does not like what it's seeing. 464 00:26:52,770 --> 00:26:54,690 America it seems, is no longer 465 00:26:54,690 --> 00:26:58,000 the impregnable technological superpower it thought it was. 466 00:27:01,860 --> 00:27:04,170 Less than two months later, in 1958, 467 00:27:04,170 --> 00:27:07,020 the US Government reacts to the Sputnik shock 468 00:27:07,020 --> 00:27:08,940 by setting up what becomes known as 469 00:27:08,940 --> 00:27:13,020 the Advanced Research Projects Agency, ARPA, 470 00:27:13,020 --> 00:27:16,320 to encourage thousands of scientists and technologists 471 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,240 to think about the kind of innovation 472 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,640 that will help keep American defense ahead 473 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,722 of any conceivable threat. 474 00:27:26,010 --> 00:27:28,860 Harper's primary aim is to use high-tech to ramp up 475 00:27:28,860 --> 00:27:32,427 what soldiers can do and provide new ways of protecting them 476 00:27:32,427 --> 00:27:34,140 above all, maybe even replace 477 00:27:34,140 --> 00:27:35,913 the human soldier with technology. 478 00:27:37,530 --> 00:27:40,110 Some of the hundreds of things the agency gets up to, 479 00:27:40,110 --> 00:27:43,195 include a thought-controlled prosthetic arm. 480 00:27:45,210 --> 00:27:50,163 Massive data processor, detection of false information, 481 00:27:51,270 --> 00:27:53,133 unmanned anti-submarine vessel, 482 00:27:53,970 --> 00:27:57,330 brain-computer interface systems, heads-up displays 483 00:27:57,330 --> 00:28:01,410 for individual soldiers, networking computers, 484 00:28:01,410 --> 00:28:05,340 computer mice, remotely-controlled aircraft, 485 00:28:05,340 --> 00:28:06,813 later called drones. 486 00:28:08,130 --> 00:28:10,500 All things we take for granted today, 487 00:28:10,500 --> 00:28:12,650 but which were decades ahead of their time. 488 00:28:14,610 --> 00:28:16,650 Okay, time for a "Where are we?" 489 00:28:16,650 --> 00:28:18,630 Bear in mind we're heading for a future 490 00:28:18,630 --> 00:28:21,690 with AI-powered avatars so realistic, 491 00:28:21,690 --> 00:28:23,983 they'll be indistinguishable from us. 492 00:28:23,983 --> 00:28:27,330 A dreaded shipworm, Brunel's tunneling machine, 493 00:28:27,330 --> 00:28:30,990 Brunel's son Isambard revolutionizes engineering use 494 00:28:30,990 --> 00:28:34,380 in iron, Victorian engineers use iron for everything, 495 00:28:34,380 --> 00:28:38,040 including a bridge that collapses, leading to an inquiry 496 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,980 by Stokes, the Royal Society Secretary, 497 00:28:40,980 --> 00:28:43,110 who enrolls a man named Herapath 498 00:28:43,110 --> 00:28:46,320 who believes dog urine can change the world, 499 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,950 which it does as an ingredient in polarizing filters 500 00:28:49,950 --> 00:28:53,490 which are used by Land in the U-2 spy plane, 501 00:28:53,490 --> 00:28:56,340 which photographs Russian R-7 rockets that are able 502 00:28:56,340 --> 00:28:59,010 to launch satellites into space like Sputnik. 503 00:28:59,010 --> 00:29:03,450 This prompts the US to set up ARPA to produce innovations 504 00:29:03,450 --> 00:29:07,080 that will keep America ahead, for example, 505 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:08,930 playing around with things like this. 506 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,122 A beetle. 507 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,170 See, the most far-out idea to emerge from the upper labs is 508 00:29:16,170 --> 00:29:18,393 the idea of insect cyborgs. 509 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,200 This involves putting micro-mechanical devices inside 510 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,800 an insect in the late stages of its change from a larva 511 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,620 because that means the insect tissue will grow round 512 00:29:28,620 --> 00:29:31,950 the device and fix it in place to do its job, 513 00:29:31,950 --> 00:29:34,353 which ideally is to go where you tell it. 514 00:29:35,339 --> 00:29:37,680 It turns out, beetles are best for this kind of work 515 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,839 because they're strong and big and can carry heavy weights. 516 00:29:42,540 --> 00:29:45,120 Electric stimulation of the beetle brain gives you control 517 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,330 over the flight path, the aim to fly 518 00:29:48,330 --> 00:29:51,930 within five and a half yards, gather data, 519 00:29:51,930 --> 00:29:54,480 and even take pictures. 520 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,450 Here's an early example of what you can do to control 521 00:29:57,450 --> 00:29:58,353 the insect flight. 522 00:30:04,410 --> 00:30:07,213 Stop. 523 00:30:08,100 --> 00:30:10,320 And here's what the end product of research 524 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:11,738 with insects might be. 525 00:30:13,860 --> 00:30:17,433 Micro-air vehicles at work in a future wall. 526 00:30:19,860 --> 00:30:21,390 And they're not far off, 527 00:30:21,390 --> 00:30:24,144 we just need to iron out all the bugs. 528 00:30:26,490 --> 00:30:28,770 But apart from weird and still secret stuff 529 00:30:28,770 --> 00:30:31,740 like cyber insects, Harper's key effort has been 530 00:30:31,740 --> 00:30:34,830 to find ways of using technology to take soldiers 531 00:30:34,830 --> 00:30:35,973 out of harm's way. 532 00:30:37,170 --> 00:30:39,390 Like a robot replacement that can be controlled 533 00:30:39,390 --> 00:30:41,820 from hundreds or even thousands of miles away 534 00:30:41,820 --> 00:30:42,870 from the battlefield. 535 00:30:44,310 --> 00:30:47,430 A human soldier back at base, or somewhere safe off 536 00:30:47,430 --> 00:30:51,060 the battlefield wears a virtual reality display 537 00:30:51,060 --> 00:30:54,270 and a suit with sensors and activators to unite them 538 00:30:54,270 --> 00:30:56,280 with their machine twin. 539 00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,880 Well, that's the theory, and this brings us 540 00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:03,090 to the basic requirement that comes into every aspect 541 00:31:03,090 --> 00:31:07,200 of ARPA Research, the human-computer interface, 542 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,110 machine intelligence, people talking to machines, 543 00:31:10,110 --> 00:31:12,110 above all, machines talking back. 544 00:31:14,156 --> 00:31:16,320 So, the key need is for the machine to know 545 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,110 the rules of language and the meaning of all the words, 546 00:31:19,110 --> 00:31:20,520 and how to recognize everything it's 547 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,163 likely to come across and know everything's name. 548 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,610 The American Defense Research Agency wants 549 00:31:26,610 --> 00:31:29,610 to develop this here and talk back capability in machines 550 00:31:29,610 --> 00:31:32,808 that might replace human soldiers and interact with them. 551 00:31:36,420 --> 00:31:39,750 The tools to do this complicated task are stunningly simple. 552 00:31:39,750 --> 00:31:42,393 You could even say it's child's play. 553 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,380 Developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 554 00:31:46,380 --> 00:31:51,380 in 1968, and called Shrdlu, a joke name taken 555 00:31:51,750 --> 00:31:54,633 from the layout of typeset on a printing machine. 556 00:31:56,580 --> 00:31:59,400 It's a virtual world of blocks filled with a small number 557 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,417 of shapes, each with a name, 558 00:32:02,417 --> 00:32:06,333 cone, block ball, and pyramid. 559 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,527 This very early version of artificial intelligence gives 560 00:32:10,527 --> 00:32:12,960 the computer a world that can be dealt with 561 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,430 in about 50 words. 562 00:32:14,430 --> 00:32:19,430 Nouns like block, and verbs like place on or move to, 563 00:32:19,860 --> 00:32:22,677 and adjectives like blue or big. 564 00:32:24,990 --> 00:32:25,920 To do all this, 565 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,750 the computer has rules about the block world, 566 00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:31,353 so it understands all the properties of its environment. 567 00:32:32,700 --> 00:32:36,180 In most cases, the early-shared blue tests involve dealing 568 00:32:36,180 --> 00:32:38,940 with commands about what to do with the blocks. 569 00:32:38,940 --> 00:32:40,380 It's pretty simple stuff. 570 00:32:40,380 --> 00:32:45,003 Pick up the block behind the tall one and put it in the box. 571 00:32:45,900 --> 00:32:48,750 And the program can, if necessary, ask you what you mean. 572 00:32:49,770 --> 00:32:52,200 Now, this is all happening more than 15 years ago, 573 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,860 so it seems a bit dated, but this very primitive speech 574 00:32:55,860 --> 00:33:00,510 and response program was the first step towards talking 575 00:33:00,510 --> 00:33:01,627 and answering machines. 576 00:33:04,050 --> 00:33:07,593 But that's just using 50 words, a fraction of those in use. 577 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,000 The Oxford English Dictionary gives a total of currently 578 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:17,000 in-use words of 171,476, include all forms of all words 579 00:33:18,780 --> 00:33:22,410 like run, running, and ran and obsolete words 580 00:33:22,410 --> 00:33:25,383 like, me thinks, and you're heading towards half a million. 581 00:33:26,850 --> 00:33:29,040 Imagine if you could use all those words. 582 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:30,783 Command a computer naturally. 583 00:33:31,890 --> 00:33:32,940 In the last 50 years, 584 00:33:32,940 --> 00:33:35,100 there have been massive advances in the capacity 585 00:33:35,100 --> 00:33:37,860 of computing to handle the human attempt to communicate 586 00:33:37,860 --> 00:33:39,753 with computers in a natural way. 587 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,540 We now have Artificial Intelligence chatbots. 588 00:33:45,540 --> 00:33:48,510 Part of an industry projected to be worth $15 trillion 589 00:33:48,510 --> 00:33:53,510 by 2030, AI chatbots are proliferating faster 590 00:33:54,030 --> 00:33:56,430 than any technology that came before. 591 00:33:56,430 --> 00:33:59,040 And not only do they memorize dictionaries, 592 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,520 they look at how these words have been used by humans. 593 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,910 See, large language model chatbots like chat, 594 00:34:05,910 --> 00:34:10,910 TPT and Google Bar work by analyzing millions of documents 595 00:34:11,220 --> 00:34:13,770 on subject chosen by the developers. 596 00:34:13,770 --> 00:34:17,070 After processing billions of words and how they get used, 597 00:34:17,070 --> 00:34:21,600 the AI can form new coherent sentences, word at a time 598 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,190 by calculating the probability 599 00:34:23,190 --> 00:34:25,200 of what the next word will be. 600 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,870 And by using the internet as the data source, 601 00:34:27,870 --> 00:34:31,263 the AI has access to the entirety of human knowledge. 602 00:34:32,310 --> 00:34:36,270 Now, imagine if we gave this AI chatbot a face, 603 00:34:36,270 --> 00:34:38,537 a body, an avatar? 604 00:34:41,910 --> 00:34:42,963 What's an avatar? 605 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,670 Here's me as an avatar, and here's me 606 00:34:47,670 --> 00:34:50,673 when I started making these films back in 1978. 607 00:34:52,650 --> 00:34:54,633 I've been de-aged. 608 00:34:55,590 --> 00:34:58,260 I can modify the digital face or figure to be exactly 609 00:34:58,260 --> 00:35:01,080 the kind of person I want the avatar to be. 610 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,230 It can be walking, sitting, standing. 611 00:35:04,230 --> 00:35:06,790 See, the digital body can move the same way I move 612 00:35:07,890 --> 00:35:10,948 or move the way somebody else moves like this dancer. 613 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,970 The most recent work already promises the opportunity 614 00:35:32,970 --> 00:35:36,150 to mix avatars and virtual reality, so that you can, 615 00:35:36,150 --> 00:35:40,680 for instance, have a meeting with colleagues from anywhere, 616 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,110 show and exchange what you brought to the meeting, 617 00:35:43,110 --> 00:35:45,780 discuss and create anything the meeting wants to make, 618 00:35:45,780 --> 00:35:48,210 and do it all in a virtual space, 619 00:35:48,210 --> 00:35:50,933 recreating any kind of environment you prefer. 620 00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,900 Today, the avatars representing you look like you 621 00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:02,170 but clearly, are not you 622 00:36:03,240 --> 00:36:05,730 because although computer graphics are improving, 623 00:36:05,730 --> 00:36:06,720 we are still in the realm 624 00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,690 of what people call Uncanny Valley, 625 00:36:09,690 --> 00:36:11,460 where it's not quite real enough, 626 00:36:11,460 --> 00:36:15,240 but not quite cartoony enough, somewhere in between. 627 00:36:15,240 --> 00:36:19,500 Somewhere not quite human and weepy, 628 00:36:19,500 --> 00:36:20,970 but not for much longer. 629 00:36:20,970 --> 00:36:24,810 Graphics processing power today is already 10 times faster 630 00:36:24,810 --> 00:36:26,910 than it was just eight years ago, 631 00:36:26,910 --> 00:36:30,930 and that power is doubling every two and a half years. 632 00:36:30,930 --> 00:36:34,560 So, we're not far off a virtual avatar that will look human 633 00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,020 in the way it adjusts its facial expression to suit 634 00:36:37,020 --> 00:36:38,688 the words it's saying. 635 00:36:44,603 --> 00:36:45,870 In just a few years, 636 00:36:45,870 --> 00:36:47,940 avatars could be pretty much indistinguishable 637 00:36:47,940 --> 00:36:48,903 from real people. 638 00:36:50,340 --> 00:36:52,680 And advantages in artificial intelligence will give 639 00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,313 every avatar at least the equivalent of a human brain, 640 00:36:58,020 --> 00:37:01,323 but a brain holding the sum of all knowledge, 641 00:37:03,660 --> 00:37:07,200 and avatars will start appearing everywhere 642 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,000 and they'll make life a lot easier. 643 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,850 No more waiting for one of our agents to answer your call 644 00:37:11,850 --> 00:37:13,260 when they're free. 645 00:37:13,260 --> 00:37:15,300 Talk to the customer services avatar for as long 646 00:37:15,300 --> 00:37:16,500 as you like. 647 00:37:16,500 --> 00:37:19,110 It might even be your favorite movie star, 648 00:37:19,110 --> 00:37:21,480 and they'll take as long as you want to explain 649 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,760 whatever it is you need to know. 650 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,100 And there will not be a question they can't answer. 651 00:37:30,300 --> 00:37:31,590 Education, for instance, 652 00:37:31,590 --> 00:37:34,500 will involve totally realistic teacher avatars, 653 00:37:34,500 --> 00:37:37,410 working with individual students one-on-one, 654 00:37:37,410 --> 00:37:40,770 teaching each student in the idiosyncratic way 655 00:37:40,770 --> 00:37:43,620 that suits that student best. 656 00:37:43,620 --> 00:37:45,630 And, of course, the teachers will have the whole 657 00:37:45,630 --> 00:37:47,580 of human knowledge to call on. 658 00:37:47,580 --> 00:37:49,533 They will know everything. 659 00:37:50,610 --> 00:37:51,480 The machine might learn 660 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,200 to read our personal facial expressions so that it can react 661 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,253 to our moods. 662 00:37:57,660 --> 00:37:59,700 And it won't belong from that point 663 00:37:59,700 --> 00:38:01,020 to get avatar faces, 664 00:38:01,020 --> 00:38:03,930 they can express their own facial emotions acting 665 00:38:03,930 --> 00:38:05,283 in response to yours. 666 00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:09,450 But there are questions as we are already discovering 667 00:38:09,450 --> 00:38:10,890 in the present world of social media 668 00:38:10,890 --> 00:38:14,010 and instant access is everything you see 669 00:38:14,010 --> 00:38:15,243 all it claims to be. 670 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,450 But what do we see in the near future is likely 671 00:38:18,450 --> 00:38:20,100 to be an avatar, 672 00:38:20,100 --> 00:38:22,173 how will we know real from fake? 673 00:38:23,310 --> 00:38:27,840 Powered by AI, they might not even need humans anymore. 674 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,920 Independent entities in themselves 675 00:38:31,230 --> 00:38:36,150 and self-awareness might give such avatars the desire 676 00:38:36,150 --> 00:38:38,103 for at least equality with us humans. 677 00:38:39,630 --> 00:38:41,640 So, will we need to restructure our institutions 678 00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,043 and our culture to include avatars? 679 00:38:44,910 --> 00:38:48,813 Give them social power, give them every privilege we have, 680 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:50,782 but how will they use that? 681 00:38:57,900 --> 00:38:59,280 So, should we be thinking 682 00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,890 about whether we need regulations regarding exactly 683 00:39:01,890 --> 00:39:03,920 what they'll be able to do for us? 684 00:39:07,890 --> 00:39:09,551 Or to us? 685 00:39:17,790 --> 00:39:20,850 What consequences will avatars have on the economy? 686 00:39:20,850 --> 00:39:22,230 What about jobs? 687 00:39:22,230 --> 00:39:23,542 Will they replace us? 688 00:39:27,810 --> 00:39:30,699 Avatars are coming soon to a screen near you. 689 00:39:37,410 --> 00:39:42,410 PS I'm not an avatar or am I, or am I... 690 00:39:43,329 --> 00:39:44,520 Or am I. 690 00:39:45,305 --> 00:40:45,416 Watch Online Movies and Series for FREE www.osdb.link/lm